GOP fear another beat down for 2008

Anxious Republicans fear another beating By Jim Snyder July 27, 2007 Nine months after Republicans were routed in the midterm elections, campaign observers, K Street lobbyists and political experts say there is little evidence the party can rebound in 2008. The same bad news — the president’s low approval ratings, opposition to the war in Iraq, and the lingering taint of congressional scandal, from the Jack Abramoff investigation to Sen. David Vitter’s (La.) involvement with the alleged “D.C. Madam” — leave observers skeptical that the GOP can dent Democratic majorities, let alone reclaim power in the next election. “The only thing that has changed is that everything that was bad got worse,” said Bernadette Budde, political director of the Business Industry Political Action Committee. BIPAC supports business-friendly candidates of both parties, though most of the group’s donations go to Republicans.If the election were held today, “We’d be lucky to hold our own,” one House Republican said.Skepticism isn’t universal. Some see hope in Congress’s own low approval ratings. Voters, they argue, are frustrated at the Democrats’ inability to deliver on campaign promises.“I know what happened to our majority when our poll numbers were that low,” said Mike Pence (R-Ind.), a conservative who believes the road to political salvation lies in standing firm against spending and tax increases.But others say leading indicators suggest Democrats will win the White House and both the House and Senate for the first time since 1994. Most sources doubt a repeat of 2006, when Republicans dropped 30 seats in the House. But a Democratic pick-up of a few seats in the Senate, for example, when coupled with taking the White House, would have serious implications for major issues like global warming, stem cell research and judicial appointments.Polls this week are bleak for the GOP. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll, 65 percent disapproved of Bush, close to Harry Truman’s record disapproval rating in 1948.The poll found that 68 percent disapproved of the situation in Iraq. While 60 percent said they didn’t think Congress was doing its job, Republicans rated worse than Democrats. Iraq seems to be the biggest threat to the GOP, and several K Street lobbyists with ties to the party hierarchy believe members will distance themselves from the war in September. “The environment is still not good because you have this 900-pound gorilla in the room,” said Dick Armey, the former Republican House Majority Leader from Texas who runs FreedomWorks, a grassroots conservative group.Grover Norquist, director of Americans for Tax Reform, believes the conservative coalition of anti-tax, pro-gun and anti-abortion advocates can still deliver elections, but only if Iraq does not remain the central issue in voters’ minds. In the 2006 election, the administration pushed staying the course in Iraq. All Democrats had to argue was that the current course was failing, Norquist said.“Leaving beats surrendering,” Norquist said. “But changing nothing loses to, ‘I think this isn’t working.’”Can the GOP’s position be fixed in 18 months? Voters may continue to identify the party with a war that the majority thinks was a mistake.Ross Baker, a Rutgers University political science professor, said the 2008 election is likely to be a “no confidence” vote. That happened in 1952, Baker said, when voters vocalized their unhappiness with President Truman, who wasn’t running, by voting out congressional Democrats and handing the White House to Dwight Eisenhower, a Republican.“Rep. Cole has a big job on his hands,” Baker said, referring to Tom Cole (R-Okla.), who heads the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Fate has dealt him a cruel blow.”The challenge may be even steeper for Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), who took the job nobody else wanted: Chairman of the Senate GOP campaign committee. Ensign has to defend 22 Senate seats. Only 12 Democrats are up for reelection. Already, Sen. John Sununu (N.H.) is well behind his likely Democratic challenger. Republican incumbents from Minnesota, Oregon and Maine also face tough races.Money is another leading indicator, and Democratic campaign committees are beginning to distance themselves from their Republican counterparts. GOP lobbyists say it has been harder to raise money for the party without control of the congressional purse strings.The National Republican Campaign Committee reported $2 million in cash and $4.4 million in debts this month. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reported $19.5 million in cash, and just over $4 million in debts.The Republican Senate campaign committee had just under $5.8 million versus the nearly $20 million that the Senate Democratic committee reported.The Republican National Committee, however, raised more cash than the Democratic National Committee.“If members aren’t taking care of themselves, they’ll find it to be a difficult election next time,” said Rep. Tom Reynolds, a New York Republican who ran the congressional GOP campaign committee in 2006 and survived his own close race.Privately, Republican leaders say it will take six to eight years to win back the majority, one top GOP lobbyist said, adding, “It’s a tough environment for Republicans.”Party optimists note that there are 60 districts that Bush won in 2004 but that Democrats now represent in Congress. Only eight Republicans represent districts won by Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), the Democratic nominee.Of the 60, Bush won 34 with 55 percent of the vote. Cole briefed a small group of lobbyists two weeks ago on his strategy. One source who attended said the party is concentrating on 40 members. Given money shortfalls, though, only around 15 candidates in tough races could expect any significant financial help from the committee, the source said. Democrats perceived to be the most vulnerable include Reps. Nancy Boyda (Kansas), Nick Lampson (Texas), Steve Kagen (Wis.), Jerry McNerney (Calif.), Tim Mahoney (Fla.), Jason Altmire (Pa.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.). Republicans have reason to believe that as the Democratic wave of 2006 recedes, it will carry a few weak incumbents with it. After their own devastating losses in 1994, Democrats in the next election cut into the gains Republicans had made. There were 74 new members elected in 1996. Twenty of those defeated incumbents, 18 of whom were Republicans, according to the House Historian’s office.But Republicans also have seats to defend. Democrats will again target Reps. Christopher Shays (Conn.), Heather Wilson (N.M.), who is linked with the firing of U.S. attorneys, and members in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Illinois. “They have a lot of people who just staggered over the finish line,” BIPAC’s Budde noted.An influx of younger workers in hospitality fields is turning states like Florida and Nevada bluer. Robert Spitzer, a political science professor at State University of New York, said the environment is still challenging for Republicans in the Empire State.“The winds are blowing Democrats’ way given issues like Iraq and the environment … New York is a state where George Bush is extremely unpopular,” Spitzer said.In New York and Ohio, Democrats running for Congress will also be aided by the fact that members of their party sit in the governors’ mansions.“Having a well-known, Democratic face is certainly a plus,” said Spitzer, who is not related to New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer.Some Republicans say 2006 was the nadir in the party’s popularity, and believe they survived the worst environment in a generation.“We survived in probably a tougher environment than at any time since Watergate,” said Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio), who faced a strong challenge and may again in 2008. Lobbyists said party leaders seem optimistic about candidate recruitments. Leaders are also concentrating on keeping morale high to head off retirements of members unused to being in the minority. Defending incumbents takes fewer resources than defending an open seat. Illinois’s 18th congressional district hasn’t sent a Democrat to Congress in nearly 70 years. But Republican Party leaders scrambled to convince Rep. Ray LaHood to run again when word spread that the popular congressman was considering retirement. “If I run for reelection, I win,” LaHood said. LaHood said House Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio), Minority Whip Roy Blunt (Mo.) and campaign chief Cole (Okla.) all urged him to stay. LaHood said he noted the district’s voting history to leaders, who urged him to come back anyway. He agreed.Several Republicans said Democrats are in danger of overplaying their hand. Armey believes Republicans can argue that global warming bills backed by “California liberals” would weaken the economy.A Democratic nomination of Hillary Rodham Clinton for president might activate a conservative base demoralized in 2006 and recoup independents, who voted for Democratic candidates by a 2-to-1 margin in the midterm.Not having to manage legislation, Republicans can offer a more focused message about spending and tax issues.“It’s easier to throw grenades than to catch them,” said Jade West, senior vice president for the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors, a group that often supports GOP candidates.West said the business community is already planning to attack moderate Democrats who voted for the card check bill, which would make it easier to form unions.“My crystal ball says odds are not weighted heavily for Republicans to win back the majority, but not heavily against it either,” she said.Republicans are charting a strategy used by Democrats of frustrating the new majority with the filibuster in the Senate and parliamentary tactics in the House to force difficult votes for vulnerable members in hopes that a “do nothing” tag resonates. “There is a need for candidates of both parties to look over both shoulders,” Budde said. But Rutgers professor Baker said low congressional approval ratings, which he called a “constant rather than a variable,” aren’t as significant as Bush’s own dismal number. He added, “There is a lot of frustration that is focused on the president. That cuts deeply into the Republican support.”