Monday, September 24, 2012

Battleground snapshot: Obama expands lead, Romney craters


By Kos/The Daily Kos

U.S. President Barack Obama speaks at a campaign rally at the Milwaukee Theater in Milwaukee, Wisconsin September 22, 2012. .REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
attribution: REUTERS
Winning by even more than he was winning before.
I've been doing these snapshots a week or so apart, but after the flood of new polling the last few days, the numbers are begging to be updated. Also, it doesn't hurt they look fantastic for Team Obama:
Those are the TPM polling composites. In every state that has been polled the last three days, Obama is up universally. Every. Single. State.
He is over 50 percent at Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin. Indeed, this is the last time I'm including Michigan in this list. It joins Missouri, New Mexico and Pennsylvania as states off the map. Not that it ever was truly in play, but the data has now caught up to the reality.
Look at North Carolina! The president is coming on strong. In fact, Obama now leads in the state in the RCP and Pollster composites. Those polling aggregators roll their older polling off more quickly off their averages, because the latest batch of Carolina polling is all bad news for Team Red. In fact, if you want to smile, check out those recent polls. The last two polls on that list? Conservative outfits.
But here's the craziest thing about the last three days worth of numbers: Mitt Romney's percentage went down in every state except one, Ohio. On the other hand, Obama's went up in every single state. Check it out:
Conservatives are praying that their guy will pick up whatever undecideds are left. Well, as the data shows, the opposite is happening—it is Obama starting to top 50 percent in several states, and within a sliver of 50 in others. Meanwhile, Romney is losing support, slipping further and further back.
Obama numbers advance forward while Romney's regress backwards. A fitting metaphor, isn't it?
If this Romney collapse continues, Indiana will be back in play. And if the collapse is complete, expect Arizona, Georgia and Missouri to join the list. Sounds crazy, right? Yup. As crazy as the idea that we might actually gain seats in the Senate was just a short while ago.
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