Clinton’s Message, and Moment, Won the Day

Clinton’s Message, and Moment, Won the Day By PATRICK HEALY At first, the moment seemed like a disaster: The televised images of the teary-eyed exchange Hillary Rodham Clinton had with a New Hampshire voter about the rigors of the campaign caused her advisers to express fears that it would badly undercut her message of strength and experience. Some advisers were so concerned that they did not e-mail video of the Monday incident to Clinton supporters, as they usually do when Senator Clinton makes positive news. “We have absolutely no idea how her getting this emotional will play with voters,” one adviser said. It turned out to play phenomenally well, one of several turning points during Mrs. Clinton’s five-day sprint in New Hampshire after the Iowa caucuses that transformed the dynamic of her race against Senator Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination. Women, in particular, responded: Several said they chose to vote for Mrs. Clinton at the last moment because she had shown a human side of herself that they had never seen. “At first, I thought it was bad that she cried, but then I thought she is a woman, give her a chance,” said Diane Fischel, a tailor and a grandmother, who cited the emotional display for deciding to vote for Mrs. Clinton in the Democratic primary instead of for Senator John McCain on the Republican side. Based on interviews with a dozen New Hampshire voters, a review of surveys of voters leaving the polls, and revelations from Clinton advisers about their own surveys there, it is clear that Mrs. Clinton’s remarkable turnaround after her loss to Mr. Obama in Iowa occurred because of several key moments — some planned, some not. She also won support by sharpening her message of experience into concrete terms, casting herself as a doer competing against Mr. Obama’s image as an eloquent talker. Among the pivots from Iowa, where Mrs. Clinton came in third, was her decision to take question after question from voters at her New Hampshire events, a break from her past appearances. Several female voters interviewed this week said it showed grit. In Iowa, she devoted far more time to acting like a celebrity on the rope lines, shaking hands and taking pictures with voters, because some of her advisers believed that Iowans wanted those up-close encounters. Former President Bill Clinton also campaigned steadily for her in New Hampshire and fine-tuned his stump speech from Iowa to focus on her accomplishments. Mr. Clinton also made a rare, angry attack on Mr. Obama at a campaign stop on Monday; aides say the attack was not planned. According to a survey of voters leaving the polls Tuesday, Mr. Clinton was viewed favorably by 83 percent of Democrats, while 49 percent had a very favorable opinion of him. Of the latter group, Mrs. Clinton got a majority of their votes. It also appeared, based on that exit poll, by Edison/Mitofsky for the television networks and The Associated Press, that Mrs. Clinton’s argument that she is the most experienced Democrat in the field — contributed to her victory. She was backed by 71 percent of Democratic voters in New Hampshire for whom experience was the most important quality; these voters made up 19 percent of those surveyed. And Mrs. Clinton’s performance in a televised debate on Saturday drew some very positive reviews from voters — especially her reply to the question of why many voters did not find her likable. “Well, that hurts my feelings,” she said, “but I’ll try to go on. I don’t think I’m that bad.” Mr. Obama, who had been trading attacks with Mrs. Clinton in the debate, followed her comment by saying, “You’re likable enough, Hillary” — a remark that some voters said was less than gracious. Michelle Evans, a New Hampshire Democrat and stay-at-home mother, said Mrs. Clinton handled the likability question well. “I believe in her,” Ms. Evans said. “I think she is a likable candidate.” Ms. Evans’s friend, Kerri Christopher, a Democrat who works in marketing and has three young children, added that Mrs. Clinton “exhibits lots of compassion that Obama didn’t.” In an interview on NBC’s “Today” show on Wednesday morning, Mrs. Clinton cited the Saturday debate as the turning point for her candidacy in New Hampshire. “It was the first time that the leading candidates actually were asked some very pointed questions about what we stand for, what we’ve done to help other people, what our accomplishments are and what we want to do for the future,” she said. Mr. Obama, who narrowly lost to Mrs. Clinton, also showed strength among the 54 percent of Democratic primary voters who believed that the ability to bring about change was the most important quality. He drew support from 55 percent of them, compared with 28 percent for Mrs. Clinton. “I want something new and fresh, I want someone we can believe in like we believed in Kennedy,” said Estelle Glover, 57, an office manager whose son just returned from a tour of duty in Iraq. “He didn’t let us down, and I don’t think Obama is going to let us down.” Mrs. Clinton’s advisers are now asking themselves how much of her strategy and message over the next four weeks should center on her personality and emotions, and how much on her ideas and track record. Advisers say that new television advertising and fund-raising solicitations will try to underscore her warmer side, as shown in one e-mail message to donors on Wednesday. “In the days ahead, you and I have to keep speaking from the heart,” Mrs. Clinton wrote in the pitch — a sentence rendered in bold in the e-mail message. Still, advisers said that Mrs. Clinton would not be comfortable emoting on cue on the campaign trail. “She can’t just keep crying,” one campaign adviser said. (Mrs. Clinton’s eyes welled up with tears, but she did not cry, at the New Hampshire event on Monday; her aides said it was because of a combination of frustration, fatigue, and emotion.) At the same time, the public reaction to that emotional moment has served as a sharp reminder to Mrs. Clinton and her advisers that voters respond to a candidate’s human touch. Mr. Obama is Example A: His eloquence, his easy manner with voters, and his ready sense of humor — he still sounds fresh when he makes his canned joke in his stump speech about being a distant cousin to Dick Cheney, after weeks of delivering it. On the eve of the New Hampshire primary and throughout Tuesday, strategists for Mr. Obama said they did not sense that voters — particularly women — in New Hampshire were taking a second look at the race. In their strategy room on Tuesday evening, they were thunderstruck. Their confidence had been mistakenly buoyed by not only the polls, but also the enormous crowds that met Mr. Obama at most stops. At the beginning of each campaign appearance, Mr. Obama would ask voters how many remained undecided. Often, one-third or one-half of those in his audience would raise their hands, a sign that advisers later conceded should have been regarded as ominous. And in hindsight, several associates said that Mr. Obama’s “you’re likable enough” at the Saturday debate only added to the perception that Mrs. Clinton was being double-teamed by Mr. Obama and another Democrat who was sharply criticizing her, John Edwards. Mr. Obama’s aides said they believe the criticism from the former president in the final days of the race also helped increase voter suspicions about his candidacy. Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Clinton campaign, said on Wednesday that New Hampshire voters responded to Mrs. Clinton because they were able to see so many sides of her personality. “Our back was against the wall, but people got to see the real Hillary Clinton,” he said. “People saw the contrast of the records in the debate. The humanizing moment she had was a big deal. People know that she’ll deliver for them.”