What the "Likely Voter" Models are Missing: Obama's Legendary Ground Game

by Deaniac83/The People's View

The media and the pollsters, as if right on queue, have started feeding the masses the "news" that the "race for president is tightening." I have made the case that most of that is horse manure, but I have also made the case in the same breath that the universe of who votes will determine who wins this election. In that vein, let's talk a little bit about the polling universes. Gallup recently switched to hilighting "likely voter" numbers rather than registered voters, but today's numbers from Gallup shows a tie on likely voters while the president is ahead 50-45 nationally among registered voters. A CNN/ORC poll from Ohio put Mitt Romney within 4 points of the President (51-47) among who they consider "likely" voters, whereas the same poll's registered voter preferences showed the president with a commanding 10-point (53-43) lead.

So, why does that matter? Aren't likely voters what should be looked at this late in the game? Not exactly. Firstly, the newly registered are almost never considered 'likely', since they have no voting history (it's like having no credit). Given the way pollsters determine who is a likely voter - which includes a given person's voting history - the "likely" voter universe is always skewed towards conservatives. This is one of the pitfalls of the Left - we're good at yelling loudly and shooting our own people in a circular firing squad, but we are not good at voting. Conservatives vote far more consistently than liberals. Want evidence? See 2010, when Democrats, at the insistence of the loud, whiny media voices, stayed home handed the Speakership to John Boehner.

But in terms of polling, that still makes sense, right? I mean, if liberals don't vote as often, it's no wonder they don't count as likely to vote. Right, except for one thing: the OFA turnout machine. President Obama's ground-game is legendary, and the most overlooked story of this election cycle. Here's how the ground-game is playing out in numbers right now, by a couple of metrics.

Number of campaign workers employed in battleground states (courtesy of The Washington Post):

Next, we have the numbers for the number of field offices for both Romney and Obama (courtesy of Seth Masket of The Mischiefs of Faction):

This is where the ground game stands. Or rather, this is where the ground game stood approximately at the end of August. My guess would be that if anything, the Obama campaign has extended that advantage.

It shouldn't come to anyone as a surprise that the President's campaign has a much superior ground organization. What Mitt Romney was hoping to beat that out with was lies amplified by the media and a gob of money. Much of the media does seem to be going along nicely with Romney's lies of late, but the money thing hasn't turned out as advantageous for Romney as he'd hoped. Last month, Obama raised a whopping $181 million, 98% of it in small chunks of $250 or less. While Romney has yet to release his September numbers, he'd have to have raised an impossible $360 million in the month to pull even with the president's total over this campaign.

The flip side of this is, of course, the Super PACs, which have heavily favored Romney. But even they cannot make up for the campaign cash advantage. Here's why: that money is mostly spent in ads, and they do not get the same legally mandated low advertising rates that campaigns get. Campaign money always gets more bang for the buck.

The campaign cash advantage and the advantage in the ground game are critical when it comes to getting out the vote. Especially when it comes to getting out the vote of the people who pollsters don't consider 'likely' to vote. Young people, poor people, ethnic minorities. A stunning number came out of Arizona today showing the President with a 80-percent support among Latino voters in the state, while Romney is in danger of falling into single digits (wonder why no one is talking about that). Arizona is not a special case. Latino voters everywhere know and remember their scapegoating by Romney and the Republicans. And you can be damn sure the Obama campaign will get them out to vote, regardless of whether pollsters think they are 'likely' to vote.

I would contend that in this election, the registered voter numbers are more important than usual. Because in this election, pollsters are more likely to discount Democratic enthusiasm as a part of their discounting of 'unlikely' voters. In this election, pollsters are not likely to pick up on the minority, youth and poor groundswell (overlay this with women - especially young women) with their predictive models. In this election, the Obama campaign is getting those voters out. People are already voting in many battle ground states. In Iowa, four times as many Democrats requested vote-by-mail ballots as Republicans, for example. The Obama campaign has pushed the same thing in Florida. The President was getting the early vote out in Ohio himself yesterday.

The media has written and talked about Obama's doomsday before. People have bet against this president before. Exactly zero of those bets ever paid off. Get. Out. The Vote!

Glenn Beck now running his own GOTV operation

From Media Matters

Over the past few weeks, Glenn Beck has used his Fox News show to urge his audience to vote and to "[g]et your friends and neighbors to go in record-breaking numbers to vote," warning them of terrible consequences if they failed to do so.

Beck: "Vote for America" to stop communists, Marxists, Nazis

"You've got to vote and you've got to get your friends to vote" to stop progressives from "making the United States into a Third World country." On the September 20 edition of his Fox News program, Beck detailed purported progressive efforts "to de-develop the United States of America" and "[m]ake us poorer and make the poor countries richer." Beck then provided his audience with the following "solution":

Well, what's the solution? Well, the immediate thing you can do is vote. You are the last line of defense -- and our founders knew. Our founders that, in the end, our branches of government would fail and the last line of defense would be you.

But here's the problem. Our turnout is pathetic. Now, I don't want to tell who to vote for. I don't even know the candidates. Sean covers the candidates. I don't.

It's up to you to find the one that has anything that you agree with. You're not going to agree with a lot of stuff and you have can't trust these people. But you've got to find somebody that will put their foot in the door.

After comparing U.S. voting rates to those in Iraq, Beck said:

If the de-development of the United States of America into a Third World country can't get this -- this is the latest -- 38 percent.

If we can't get that over at least 40 percent, if the idea of making the United States in to a third world country cannot motivate enough Americans to get in to the voting booth, when these people will do it at death -- then you know what? Then we don't stand a chance.

But the good news is: it is. Americans know. All you have to do is reach out to the people with facts and reason. Reach out to the people -- I met them over the weekend.

I met all these people in Chicago. I met them in Clemson University. I met them up in Indiana. People said, "I voted for Barack Obama. I didn't listen to you, I believed all the crap. But then I watched. It saw what was happening."

They're out there. They're out there. I don't care if you vote for a Democrat or an independent or a Republican. You've got to vote and you've got to get your friends to vote. [transcript from the Nexis database]

Beck's video urges audience to "vote for America." On the September 21 edition of his Fox News show, Beck aired a video featuring footage from Beck's "Restoring Honor" rally. Beck's radio co-host, Pat Gray, provided the following voiceover for the video:

Mr. President, if restoring honor to America, defending our Constitution, and turning to God has become a radical idea, well, I guess we're in more trouble than we thought. On November 2, vote Democrat, Republican, or independent, but most importantly, vote for America.

After the video, Beck commented, "America, we have to get out and vote. We can do better than the way we've been voting."

"You're going to have to get out and vote and you're going to have to get people out to vote" to stop Marxists and communists. On the September 23 edition of his Fox News show, Glenn Beck claimed (from the Nexis database):

BECK: OK. Not long ago, in fact, I think two years ago, many people, even still today, it's inconceivable to have people actually buy in to socialism and Marxism and communism. It's a concept that has been proven a failure every single time. And it's a deadly failure.

Well, now it's up to you. It's up to you. What do you choose?

You're going to have to get out and vote and you're going to have to get people out to vote. I can't imagine that people wouldn't vote this time around, but they -- so many people are still not awake. What's stopping us? You've got to wake up your friends and your neighbors. And some of you are doing just that.

I got a message the other day from a viewer who wrote, quote, "My cynical friend of 20 years says Glenn Beck and I have motivated him to finally register to vote and he convinced his wife." Let me tell you something -- fantastic!

It doesn't even matter -- I don't care if they're voting for Democrat or Republican, whatever! Get out and stake your claim. Vote for the candidate you believe is bringing the truth. You make all of the difference. Now is the time.

He then aired the "vote for America" video he aired the day before.

"Vote" to prevent Nazi takeover. On the September 24 edition of Fox News' Glenn Beck, a member of the audience asked Kitty Werthmann, who grew up in Austria under the Nazi regime, "looking back, what would you had done rather than just, you know, maybe letting it happen? Can you see anything that you might actually encourage us to do in response?" Beck responded to Werthmann, "It actually goes back to what you said, vote ... your [Austrian] people elected Hitler with 98 percent." He later added (accessed from Nexis):

BECK: I can't believe that we -- that we elect people of -- people of all faith, of all faith, elect people that we know are lying to us, know are not living decent lives. They represent us. They represent us. Well, OK, does that represent us? I think in many cases, it does. We must stop that.

"Get your friends and neighbors to go in record-breaking numbers to vote" because "we are in the end phase of the set-up." On the September 30 edition of his Fox News show, Beck said (from the Factiva database):

We are facing the worst threat. We may stand in line for 20 minutes with someone trying to sell you Amway products, or I don't know, you know, somebody is like, I got to tell you some -- you know. But nobody has threatened our lives. Have you called your neighbor yet? Have you volunteered at a nursing home or a community center to help people get registered and tell people to vote? I'm not telling you who to vote for. I have don't care if it's a Republican or a Democrat or an Independent. Find someone who you believe more than the other.

He later added, "This isn't a game, America. And we are in the end phase of the set-up. Get your friends and neighbors to go in record-breaking numbers to vote."

In the next segment, Beck warned his audience that "[t]ough times are coming" because progressive "activists are great at one thing -- dividing, disrupting, agitating." He continued:

This is a nightmare. But they are about to go back to agitating, because once they lose control of the house, they have to. That is what they're good at. You must overwhelm them in numbers. Get out and vote this November.

Get someone else to vote. I don't care how they vote. Just get them to vote. Get off the couch. Get your neighbors off the couch. Be proactive. You just make sure - are you registered to vote yet? Register to vote. Make sure people in your neighborhood are registered to vote.

Get them out in droves and then stand peacefully arm in arm, because I fear the trouble is just about to begin. And it will only get worse. The sting, I believe, happens maybe after January.