Schauer leads Snyder by 4

Public Policy Polling:

I gotta tell Nolan, Huel and
Timmy they gotta work harder for me.

PPP's first poll of the Michigan Gubernatorial race since Mark Schauer's official entry finds the Democrat leading incumbent Rick Snyder 42/38. PPP's polling of this match up over the last six months has been very consistent- in March Schauer also led Snyder by 4 points and in December he had a 5 point advantage.

Schauer's initial lead has a lot more to do with Snyder than it does with himself. Even after his official candidacy announcement, he has just 38% statewide name recognition. But Snyder continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 40% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove. He's at 40/51 with independents and Democrats (78% disapproval) dislike him a good deal more than Republicans (68% approval) like him.

Schauer's low name recognition at this point means that things could actually get worse for Snyder. The undecideds for Governor voted for Barack Obama by a 16 point margin, and only 22% approve of Snyder to 64% who disapprove. Those are folks likely to move into the Schauer camp once he becomes better known.

Snyder's role in the passage of right to work legislation continues to be a big problem for him. Just 40% of voters support that law to 50% who oppose it, numbers that have not seen any improvement since the initial furor after it passed in December. Snyder continues to have issues with his brand, as only 34% of voters now consider him to be 'one tough nerd' to 45% who don't.

Snyder obviously has a lot of time between now and next November to improve his standing but our 3 polls over the last six months have been very consistent in their findings: he's way under water on his approval ratings and running behind his potential competition for next year.

Republicans in the legislature continue to face backlash from the voters as well. Just 27% have a favorable opinion of them to 59% with a negative one, and their 25/61 spread with independents is even worse than their overall numbers. The Democrats in the legislature aren't popular either- a 38/43 favorability rating- but they look good enough in comparison to the Republicans to hold a 48/38 lead on the generic legislative ballot.

And finally 49% of voters in the state support raising the minimum wage to $10 an hour, compared to 43% who are opposed to that idea.

We will have the Senate portion of our Michigan poll tomorrow.

Full results here

Democrat Mark Schauer to challenge Gov. Rick Snyder in 2014

By Paul Egan/Detroit Free Press

LANSING — Former Democratic congressman Mark Schauer announced Tuesday that he is running for governor of Michigan in 2014.

“I’m in!” Schauer said on Twitter. “Today I’m announcing my campaign for governor. I’m ready to run, I’m ready to work & I’m ready to win.”

Schauer, from Battle Creek, made the announcement online on the eve of the Detroit Regional Chamber’s Mackinac Policy Conference on Mackinac Island, where he is to appear today. He is the only announced candidate seeking to challenge Republican Gov. Rick Snyder, who took office in 2011 and is expected to seek a second term. Snyder also is from Battle Creek.

Several prominent Democrats have announced they will not run and are backing Schauer, meaning he stands currently as the likely Democratic nominee.
Schauer represented the 7th Congressional District in 2009-11.

“Rick Snyder has taken Michigan in the wrong direction — cutting schools & raising taxes on seniors,” Schauer said on Twitter.

“We need an economy that works for everyone — not just the wealthy and not just the special interests.”

Snyder is “focused on sound policy” and “will continue to make the long overdue, tough decisions that will help keep our state moving forward and building a strong future for all,” spokeswoman Sara Wurfel said.

“Every stop we do, we come across Michiganders of all backgrounds, communities, small businesses who say they may not have agreed with everything he’s done, but they’re starting to see it make a difference and to keep going,” she said.

Schauer, a former state lawmaker and member of the Battle Creek City Commission, used to run the Community Action Agency in Battle Creek.

Poll: Gov. Snyder in dead heat with 2 Democrats

By Kathleen Gray/Detroit Free Press:

Even though a big majority of recently polled Michigan voters don’t know who Democrats Mark Schauer and Bart Stupak are, the two politicians are in a dead heat with Gov. Rick Snyder in head-to-head matchups for the 2014 gubernatorial election.

Schauer of Battle Creek and Stupak of Menominee are both former state lawmakers and congressmen, and have been mentioned as potential candidates for governor, although neither has made an official announcement about running.

The poll of 600 people done April 13-16 by EPIC/MRA of Lansing showed that 56% of the people surveyed didn’t know who Stupak was and 75% didn’t know who Schauer was. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

And yet, Schauer holds a slim 39-38% lead over Snyder, while Stupak is a point behind Snyder at 38-39%.

“If they’re running even with Snyder and no one knows who they are, that’s an indication that Snyder is losing support,” said Bernie Porn, EPIC/MRA’s pollster.

The governor’s favorable rating hit a high of 55% in early December. But that was before controversial right-to-work legislation was passed in the raucous final days of the legislative session. Since then, Snyder’s ratings have been slipping. In the April survey, 42% of the people had a favorable view of him, while 46% had an unfavorable view. His job rating was 38% positive to 58% negative.

The poll was taken after Snyder proposed higher driver registration fees and gas taxes — as well as being done right around tax filing time when many Michiganders found their state refunds much lower because of new state policy pushed by Snyder.

“Those are not going over very well,” Porn said. “And now, people are doing taxes and realizing ‘I’m paying higher taxes.’ ”

But a majority of the people surveyed — 56% — said they think the economy has already bottomed out and is getting better, while 23% said the economy isn’t getting any better, with 18% saying it’s still getting worse.

President Barack Obama’s favorability ratings in the April survey are 52% favorable to 44% unfavorable.