Five Pundits Who Confidently Predicted The Obamacare Ruling And Got It Wrong

By Annie-Rose Strasser/Think Progress

Over the last few weeks, nearly every pundit in the U.S. took a guess at whether the Affordable Care Act would be upheld, overturned, or cobbled back together in some new fashion. Many — if not most — of those guesses were wrong.

But some pundits in particular should be cutting a big slice of humble pie as progressives celebrate Obamacare being held up in full. Here they are:

1. Bill O’Reilly: On his show on FOX News, O’Reilly predicted that the law would be struck down: “It’s going to be five-to-four. And, if I’m wrong, I will come on and I will… apologize for being an idiot.”

Watch it:

2. CNN Contributor Jeffrey Toobin: Toobin came out immediately after the arguments and said, “This was a train wreck for the Obama Administration. This law looks like it’s going to be struck down. I’m telling you, all of the predictions, including mine, that the justices would not have a problem with this law were wrong.” Toobin admitted he was wrong today, but he was right about one thing: “The only conservative Justice who looked like he might uphold the law was Chief Justice Roberts, who asked hard questions of both sides.”

Watch his ‘train wreck’ flub:

3. The Daily Beast’s Michael Tomasky: “This is easy. I take the darkest and most cynical possible view of the conservative majority. …That means overturning the mandate 5-4. But it means doing so narrowly, carefully, almost regretfully. In other words, they want more than anything else not to rile up liberals.”

4. National Review’s Ed Whelan: “[T]he fact that Justice Scalia read his dissent from the bench in the Arizona immigration case leads me to believe that the Court will invalidate the individual mandate by a 5-4 vote.”

5. Dana Perino, former Bush spokesperson: “I do think that it is going to lose and I’ll tell you why. This past weekend, Justice Ginsburg…in public comments said to expect sharp disagreements when the decision comes out. To me, that means it’s either a 6-3 or a 5-4 decision against Obamacare, and I don’t know if that means that the whole thing will be overturned or they’ll try to split it.”

Watch it:

Michigan emergency Mangers undermine recovery as well democracy

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Karl Rove money machine missteps on ad

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Fox's Voter Fraud Special Light On Voter Fraud

by Matt Gertz/media matters

Fox News' latest attempt to promote discriminatory voter ID laws is an hour-long special featuring no credible cases of in-person voter fraud that could have been prevented by such laws.

Voter ID laws are the only remedy for fraud that the host Eric Shawn presents in the special, Fox News Reporting: Stealing Your Vote, which postulates that "voter fraud is still rampant" and ran on April 21 and 22. Shawn is Fox's point person for election fraud coverage, regularly appearing in segments over the last 18 months that conclude with the correspondent urging viewers to send tips to the network's voter fraud email hotline, voterfraud@foxnews.com.

In promoting on the voter ID laws that Fox News has regularly hyped, Shawn finds only one supposed claim of in-person voter fraud that could have been prevented by such statutes:  the allegation that nearly 1,000 "dead" people voted in South Carolina. Shawn reports:

SOUTH CAROLINA GOV. NIKKI HALEY (R): Let's be clear, I don't want dead people voting in the state of South Carolina.

SHAWN: And authorities say there is evidence that dead people voting is a real problem, according to a statewide investigation by South Carolina's Department of Motor Vehicles. In January, it found that 953 ballots were cast by voters who are deceased. But the state Election Commission director disputes those findings.

The state's Election Commission director didn't just "dispute those findings"; the commission investigated and debunked them. Reviewing the 207 contested votes from the 2010 election, the commission found that 106 were clerical errors by poll workers, 56 were errors by the DMV, 32 were cases of people being credited as voting when they hadn't, and three were absentee ballots cast by voters who died before Election Day. The commission said they had "insufficient information" regarding the final ten contested votes, but found no evidence of fraud.

That case predictably collapsed after being repeatedly hyped by Fox News.

The remainder of the hour-long program was devoted to allegations of election fraud that did not involve the sort of efforts to steal elections through in-person voter fraud that Fox regularly claims voter ID is needed to stop. This is not surprising, as in-person voter fraud is incredibly rare. Apparently unable to find such cases, Shawn filled the time with:

• A case in Connecticut in which a deceased person was reported to have voted; Shawn admits this was later found to be the result of a "clerical error."
• A case in Oakland County, Michigan, involving candidates being placed on the ballot without their knowledge through falsified election filings.
• Cases involving absentee ballot fraud in New York, Florida, Georgia, West Virginia, andMississippi.
• Falsified signatures on petitions seeking to put President Obama on the ballot in Indiana in 2008.
• The case of the Indiana Secretary of State who was convicted of election fraud for registering at the wrong address.
• Evidence-free claims that petitions seeking to recall Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker may include enough false signatures to invalidate that effort.
• A New Mexico investigation into undocumented immigrants that alleged a total of 19 votes that had been cast by non-citizens.
• Allegations of voter registration fraud by ACORN.
• Allegations that up to 1,000 felons voted in the 2008 elections in Minnesota; that claim was based on a conservative group's report that has been debunked.

Romney’s ‘Deep Organization’ in Michigan: Nobody Home

From Michigan Democratic Party

As general election begins to take shape, Romney campaign – true to form – substitutes campaign cash for non-existent grassroots organization

“A deep organization like the one Romney has built in Michigan in two election cycles, including a hard-fought primary this year, is going to be key if he hopes to win a state that hasn’t supported a Republican presidential contender since George Bush in 1988.” – Detroit Free Press, 4/16/12

LANSING, MI – As the general election begins to take shape, press accounts this week took the lay of the land in Michigan. While there is little dispute that the Obama campaign has a much more robust local grassroots presence, some pundits and Romney supporters sought to boost their candidate’s standing in Michigan, touting a ‘deep organization’ that includes wealthy campaign contributors and longstanding ties to the Republican establishment. Curious, the Michigan Democratic Party took a look at that organization this week, and this is what we found:

Mitt Romney’s grassroots campaign operation, April 20, 2012:

“Obama already has eight ‘regional grassroots offices’ in Michigan, with plans to expand to a dozen in the coming weeks. Mitt Romney, by contrast, apparently shut down his Michigan office soon after he won the primary on February 28th. A call to Romney’s press office to arrange a visit to a field office in Michigan produces only puzzlement. ‘In Michigan?’ a bewildered spokeswoman tells me. ‘We obviously had one. I don’t even know if I still have the address.’” [Rolling Stone, 3/29/12]

Michigan Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer issued the following statement:

“Michiganders will never forget that Mitt Romney turned his back on our state when we were laid low, suggesting that the auto industry ‘go bankrupt,’ and there’s not a so-called ‘deep organization’ in the world that can change that fact. For all of Governor Romney’s fundraising and Republican establishment support, the best he could do in Michigan was to eke out a three-point victory over a deeply flawed and underfunded primary opponent – and his campaign has since pulled up stakes. No, Governor Romney will not be enjoying any sort of ‘home field advantage’ in Michigan, any more than the Colts would in Baltimore or Art Modell’s Ravens would in Cleveland. In fact, I’d suggest a famous photo of another NFL venue says it all about Mitt Romney’s campaign in Michigan: nobody’s home.”

A visual approximation of Mitt Romney’s “Deep Organization” in Michigan.

“Penny-Pinching” Pete Hoekstra Spends like a Drunken Sailor

From Michigan Democratic Party

Lansing – According to newly released FEC reports obtained by the Associated Press, Pete Hoekstra’s campaign for U.S. Senate is in serious trouble. In an attempt to bury the announcement of his fundraising totals, Hoekstra posted on his Facebook page late last Friday night that he had raised $700,000 during the quarter. No official press release or comment was made by his campaign, although his lackluster total was reported on by both national and Michigan outlets.

But what “Penny-Pinching” Pete didn’t mention on his Facebook page is that reports revealed today show that he had actually brought in only $695,000 since the start of 2012…and that he spent a whopping $677,000 of it, blowing nearly everything he brought in. In spite of having almost no campaign presence around Michigan, Pete “Spend-it-Not” has magically turned into Pete “Spends All He’s Got”.

“It looks like Pete Hoekstra is spending like a drunken sailor,” said Mark Brewer, Chair of the Michigan Democratic Party. “While I’m sure divisive Super Bowl ads are expensive to make, it’s clear that if Hoekstra can’t keep spending under control on his own campaign, there’s no way he’ll be able to deal with the struggling economy in Michigan or effectively advocate for middle class families.”

One of Hoekstra’s main expenditures during the first quarter of 2011 was a divisive Super Bowl ad that was heavily criticized even by fellow Republicans.  The ad caused a surge in Senator Stabenow’s fundraising and suppressed Hoekstra’s fundraising.  Hoekstra’s mismanagement has set his campaign off to a rocky start to the election year.

Hoekstra’s $695,000 quarter is less than half of what was raised by Senator Stabenow (over $1.5 million) and a significant decrease from the $983,000 Hoekstra was able to raise in the last quarter of 2011.

Clark Durant, Hoekstra’s leading opponent for the Republican nomination, reported raising $558,000 and spending $234,000.  According to the Associate Press, Durant now has $1.51 million on hand, practically matching Hoekstra’s on hand total of $1.54 million.

Meanwhile, Senator Stabenow has approximately $7 million on hand.

Romney’s Stadium Speech Today Dwarfed By Obama Stadium Speech In 2008

By Alex Seitz-Wald/Think Progress

At this very moment, Mitt Romney is holding an event at Ford Stadium which has failed to attract enough people to come even close to filling it up (in fact, you could fit Romney’s 1,200 person crowd in the 65,000-seat stadium 54 times over). His campaign scrambled to make the event look as full as possible, but largely failed. Photo via Byron York:

Meanwhile, during the same period in the campaign four years ago, President Obama held a rally at the massive XL Center in Hartford, Connecticut that attracted a few more people (the center is much smaller, with a capacity of about 16,000). A photo of the February 4th, 2008 rally via the blog Levers and Pulleys (click on image for full size version):

UPDATE

Two more Obama stadium rallies from February, 2008 via the Obama Flickr page. This one in Madison, Wisconsin on the 12th:

And Cincinnati, Ohio on the 25th:

Snyder Fails to Invest in Public Education

Quick Nolan Finley spin this

 From Michigan Democratic Party

Michigan Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer issued the following statement on Governor Snyder’s budget proposal:

“This budget fails to address the gaping hole in our K-12 public education system left by the Republican budget from one year ago. Governor Snyder and Republicans robbed $1 billion from public education in order to pay for a $1.8 billion tax cut for big corporations and wealthy CEOS, which has failed to produce a single job. This budget does not restore those funds.

“We need to be investing in our kids who are the future of this state and this country. Governor Snyder’s alleged ‘increase’ in public education funding doesn’t even match the rate of inflation. This budget will lead to further cuts in our schools, including more layoffs and larger class sizes for our kids.

“If the Governor and the Republicans are serious about investing in public education, they should restore the funding they cut last year. We need to be investing in our kids and giving teachers the tools they need to succeed. This budget does nothing to accomplish those goals.”

Romney “Limping Into Michigan” Having Been Shut-Out in Midwest

From Michigan Democratic Party:

LANSING – With the Michigan Republican primary just three weeks away, Mitt Romney has now lost more nominating contests than he has won, and what was once supposed to be a coronation has now become a must-win situation for the Romney campaign.

“After losing all three contests on Tuesday, Mitt Romney will be limping into Michigan having won fewer states than Rick Santorum and being completely shut out in the Midwest. Once again, Republican turnout was way down, enthusiasm was nonexistent, and it was clear that the more voters learned about Romney, they more they disliked him,” said MDP Chair Mark Brewer. “Mitt Romney was counting on Michigan to seal his nomination, but with more than two-thirds of Michigan Republican voters preferring someone else, Romney will now be looking to keep his campaign alive.”

To date, Mitt Romney has lost five out of the first eight nominating contests – winning only Florida, New Hampshire, and Nevada – and he has not yet won a state in the Midwest. Rick Santorum has won in four states: Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri.

An Epic-MRA poll in late January showed that Romney’s support in Michigan had dropped sharply, and a new poll from MIRS released on Tuesday shows that 69% of Republican Primary voters in Michigan are not supporting Romney.

Republican enthusiasm has also suffered throughout the primary process. Turnout in the three contests on Tuesday was down significantly from 2008 levels. A national poll released today from Public Policy Polling shows that Democrats are more excited about the upcoming general election than Republicans – with 58% of Democrats reporting that they are ‘very excited’ to vote in the November election compared to 54% of Republicans.

Why Republican Oligarchs May Not Choose to Defend Mitt Romney

John Nichols/The Nation

It is fair to say that few candidates in modern history have done themselves more damage than did Mitt Romney’s “crack” campaign team when it decided to release the candidate’s tax returns on the day that President Obama was delivering a State of the Union address about tax fairness.

If Romney has not fired the “genius” who suggested the idea of releasing the returns on SOTU day—apparently in hopes the news that Romney was only paying at a 13.9 percent rate would be overshadowed by the presidential pronouncement—he should do so.

The miscalculation on the part of Romney and his campaign was startling. Instead of avoiding the spotlight on an issue that is severely damaging to his candidacy—both as a contender for the Republican nomination and, should he survive the trial by Newt, as the party’s candidate in a fall race with Obama—he stepped right into it.

Romney’s bad timing made him Exhibit A in the national debate about why the the billionaires and millionaires pay lower tax rates than their secretaries.

Or, as the Los Angeles Times headline put it: “Romney tax returns highlight tax code’s breaks for rich.”

That’s bad for Romney.

But he is not the only 1 Percenter who is threatened.

If America is entering a new populist moment, where the slogan “Tax the Rich” is dusted off by Democratic candidates, and perhaps even a few Republicans, the filthiest of the filthy rich might have to clean up their acts.

Or, to be more precise, they might have to pay their fair share.

If the program Obama is promoting gets traction, Romney’s tax burden would double.

And, while we are only talking degrees of guilt here, Romney actually pays more taxes than a lot of the other guys at the country club.

So this raises a question: Do the CEOs, the investment bankers and the hedge fund managers who form the real base of the Republican Party—as the funders of GOP candidates and the Super PACs that sustain them—really want to nominate a candidate whose very presence at the top of the ticket guarantees that the lifestyles of the rich and contemptuous will be a 2012 campaign issue?

Are they feeling that lucky?

If not, they’re going to be looking elsewhere, especially if William Jennings Gingrich wins next Tuesday’s Florida primary. There will not be a groundswell among the monied elites for Gingrich. He’s toxic. But the roadblock he is creating to Romney opens up the prospect that Republican powerbrokers might be able to create a new candidacy come convention time.

Gingrich’s sweep of the South Carolina primary last Saturday made Romney damaged goods.

But the tax returns fiasco has done the former front-runner’s prospects even more damage.

And as the damage was being done, there was Mitch Daniels looking all presidential for his State of the Union response.

Don’t think the people who write big checks to Republican candidates in order to avoid writing big checks to the IRS failed to notice.

Economists: Romney’s Economic Plan Fails To Deal With ‘Main Drags’ On U.S. Economy

By Travis Waldron/Think Progress

Picture from Stephanie Miller Facebook page

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s (R) economic plan has become the centerpiece of his presidential campaign. Though his proposals are often vague, analyses of the plan shows that it would provide huge tax breaksfor the wealthiest Americans while raising taxes on low-income families. And though Romney claims to be concerned about the federal budget deficit, his plan would add more than $6 trillion in deficits over 10 years.

Romney, who touts his experience as a job creator, has suggested laying off thousands of public sector workers. He wants to slash vital programs for the poor and middle-classes, repeal the Affordable Care Act, and gut Medicare and Social Security. His embrace of the radical Cut, Cap, and Balance plan pushed by House Republicans would, in effect, shrink the federal government to pre-Ronald Reagan era sizes.

But for all his talk about the plan on the campaign trail, economists surveyed by Reuters say Romney’s plan likely wouldn’t deal with the main drags on the American economy, while the cuts to vital programs would be “utterly draconian“:

These steps would shrink the federal government’s role more than even former president Ronald Reagan managed 30 years ago when he turned many social programs over to the states. That scenario concerns liberal economists.

“If applied, these fiscal measures would be utterly draconian. The attacks on Medicare and Social Security would throw large portions of the population into poverty,” said Jamie Galbraith, business professor at the University of Texas in Austin.

Mainstream economists worry more that neither Romney nor his Republican opponents are addressing the main drag on the U.S. economy – weak demand from American consumers still weighed down by debt.

Among the “main drags” highlighted in the Reuters piece is the housing crisis, which has placed “a big drag on consumer spending which drives two thirds of the U.S. economy.” But the GOP candidates have offered little in the way of solutions for the crisis, and Romney’s own prescription involves letting the housing market hit rock bottom — further damaging millions of homeowners. “Markets work,” Romney told moderators at a debate in November when asked what he would do to address the housing crisis.

According to former Wall Street economist Thomas Gallagher, addressing demand should be at the top of the list when it comes to speeding the recovery. Instead, Romney is focused on budget deficits and tax reform — the types of austerity measures that are pushing Europe toward another recession. Perhaps that’s why a survey of economics professors found that the Republican proposals were so bad, they wouldn’t pass an Econ 101 class.

Benton Harbor still deep in the red. Is the magic of an Emergency Manager simply not enough?

By Eclectablog/Eclectablog

Joe Harris has been on the job as Emergency Manager in Benton Harbor for over a year and a half now. However, a recent report indicates the success he is credited for at "turning Benton Harbor around" may not be based in fact. Michigan Radio has this important story.

The State Treasurer’s office is reviewing an independent audit of Benton Harbor’s finances for the 2011 fiscal year. The audit shows the city still spent more money than it made during its first year under a state appointed emergency manager.

The audit shows Benton Harbor Emergency Manager Joe Harris cut the yearly operating deficit by about $126,000 from when elected city leaders were governing. The city still spent about $653,000 more than it took in for the fiscal year that began in July of 2010 and concluded at the end of June 2011.

“The point that I want to make is that the changes we made occurred during the year and we did not have a full year of cost savings,” Harris said. Harris was the city’s emergency financial manager for most of the 2011 fiscal year but became an emergency manager with more power in April of 2011 (more than 9 months into the fiscal year).

With these types of results, it's puzzling as to why Harris has been talking about leaving by the middle of 2012. And considering how nearly every conservative commentator in the state is crowing about Harris's amazing results in Benton Harbor, one wonders where they get their information from.

Why is it that Harris hasn't had the success he's claimed to have had? Could it be because, as I have said time and again, that these problems go far deeper than simple bookkeeping and union-busting? Could it be because Benton Harbor's problems are systemic and relate to having nearly no manufacturing base and an education system that gives few of their residents the chance to succeed? Could it be that Benton Harbor is broke because there are no jobs and half its population is below the poverty line.

The answer is clearly yes and the sooner we quit pretending Emergency Managers can solve these issues with simple bookkeepping tricks and at the expense of public employees, the better off we will be.

Harris's problems in Benton Harbor get worse, though. It turns out that under his watch the City is in violation of federal laws.

The audit outlined three accounting mistakes where the city violated state and federal laws (as stated in the audit) in fiscal 2011. Harris says those mistakes have been or are being addressed.

The City did not make timely payments to the IRS for FICA taxes (both the employer portion, and the employee withholdings) throughout the year. As of June 30, 2011, the outstanding liability to the IRS amounted to $402,305.

Harris reported in September the city has paid what it owed the IRS and the accompanying fines for being late.

While it appears that the City made a good faith effort to be timely with distributing current tax collections, we noted that as of June 30, 2011, the City still owed approximately $1,700,000 in back taxes to local entities. These balances appear to primarily relate to collections from prior years.

And there's more. Read about it HERE.

On Sunday, I will have an op-ed published in the MLive newspaper the Muskegon Chronicle, challenging the lies, strawmen and obfuscation in an op-ed published yesterday and written by Steve Gunn from the anti-teachers union group Education Action Group. His piece is so rife with falsehoods and red herrings that it simply must be refuted. Stay tuned.