President Obama positively SURGES in most recent PPP poll

by Eclectablog/The People's View


Welly, well, well, well. Who whoulda thunk it?Favorability rating: UP 11 points Job approval rating: UP 6 points Poor David Nir at Daily Kos just can't explain it. "I can tell you what changed in our cross-tabs," he says, "but I can't tell you why things changed." It's a complete mystery why the president could possibly be surging to him? I'ma go out on a limb and say four simple words: The. American. Jobs. Act. Pass it. Now.

NEWSWEEK Poll: Anger Unlikely to Be Deciding Factor in Midterms

by Andrew Romano

Anger is dominating the current political conversation—especially if you're an older, whiter, economically anxious voter who dislikes President Barack Obama and tends to prefer Republicans to Democrats. But according to the new NEWSWEEK Poll, there's little reason to believe that anger alone will be the determining factor in November's midterm elections.

Self-described "angry" voters fit a rather predictable political and demographic profile. The survey found that only 14 percent are Democrats. The rest are either Republicans (52 percent) or independents (29 percent), with 42 percent of the angry voters declaring themselves Tea Party supporters. For the midterms, angry voters favor Republican candidates over their Democratic rivals, 73 percent to 19 percent. Three quarters want the GOP to win control of Congress. More than seven in 10 specifically describe themselves as angry with Obama and congressional Democrats, and a full 60 percent see their vote in November as a vote against the president. Compared with voters in general, angry voters are 21 percent more likely to say they're worried about their economic future. They are 10 percent whiter than voters in general and 7 percent less likely to be under 30.

But the NEWSWEEK Poll's most revealing finding is that despite months of media coverage insisting that voters are "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore," anger is unlikely to decide this year's elections. For starters, self-described angry voters constitute only 23 percent of the electorate, and there's no reason to believe that they're more likely to cast ballots in November than their calmer peers. Why? Because the percentage of angry voters who say they will definitely vote in the midterms is statistically indistinguishable from the overall percentage of voters who say the same thing (84 percent vs. 81 percent). In fact, majorities of voters say they would not be more likely to vote for candidates who express anger at Washington incumbents (60 percent), Wall Street bankers (52 percent), the illegal-immigration problem (53 percent), the Gulf of Mexico oil spill (65 percent), or health-care reform (55 percent). Fifty-three percent of voters see Obama's unemotional approach to politics—his "coolness"—as a positive, versus only 39 percent who don't.

Anger isn't the only factor that's been overhyped in the run-up to Election Day. The president, for example, appears to be a neutral force rather than a negative one. His approval rating stands at 48 percent, roughly where it has remained since January of this year, and far better than where George W. Bush stood before the 2006 midterms (33 percent) or where Bill Clinton stood in 1994 (36 percent). Meanwhile, the percentage of voters who say they will be voting "for Obama" in November's congressional elections (32 percent) is statistically identical to the percentage who say they will be voting "against" him (30 percent). Voters dissatisfied with the country's current course are more likely to place "a lot" of blame on Bush (39 percent) than on his successor (32 percent).

Another factor that has garnered a lot of potentially unwarranted attention is "the issues." Simply put, in the NEWSWEEK Poll, voters said they trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle pretty much every problem currently facing the country: Afghanistan (by 6 points), health care (by 12), immigration (by 2, though that figure is within the margin of error), Social Security (by 14), unemployment (by 12), financial reform (by 14), energy (by 19), and education (by 19). Voters even prefer Democrats to Republicans on federal spending (by 4 points), taxes (by 5), and the economy (by 10)—the GOP's core concerns. The only area where Republicans outpoll Democrats is the issue of terrorism, where they lead by a 6-point margin.

Still, voters are split on which party should control Congress after November—44 percent went for Republicans, 46 percent for Democrats—and most experts are predicting sizable Republican gains in both the House and the Senate. So if not anger, the president, or the issues, what will be the deciding factor in the 2010 midterm elections? According to the NEWSWEEK Poll, the condition of the economy, and the inability of anyone in Washington to improve it, is by far the most important force at play in this year's congressional campaigns.

Compare 2010 with 1994, the last year a new Democratic president lost control of Congress to the GOP. While the overall percentage of Americans who now say they are dissatisfied with the country's direction (68 percent) is slightly lower than the percentage recorded in August 1994 (71 percent), the economy is a much stronger source of discontent than it was 16 years ago. In 1994, for example, only 52 percent of voters named "economic conditions in general" as a primary reason for their unhappiness. Today, that percentage has shot up to 75 percent. In 1994, 45 percent cited "not enough good-paying jobs" as a major factor. Today, the number has climbed to 56 percent. (Social issues, meanwhile, have lost much of their impact: only 41 percent of dissatisfied voters now complain about "low moral and ethical standards," versus 59 percent in 1994.)

As a result, voters are desperate for greater economic security, and willing to try something new to achieve it. With 59 percent assigning "a lot" of blame to Congress as a whole—and 42 percent placing that blame on congressional Democrats, compared with only 30 percent for congressional Republicans—it's only natural that Democrats are likely to be the ones losing seats in November.

This poll was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International on September 29-30, 2010. Telephone interviews were conducted with a nationally representative sample of 1,025 adults, 18 years and over, including 691 adults reached on a landline telephone and 334 adults reached on a cell phone. Results use a two-stage weighting procedure: (1) to correct for different probabilities of selection associated with the number of adults in each respondent’s household and their household telephone usage patterns; and (2) to adjust the sample demographics to Census Current Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race, region, and population density. The overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for results based on 1,025 adults. Results based on smaller subgroups are subject to larger margins of sampling error.

More Americans have a positive reaction to ‘progressive’ than ‘capitalism.’

By Alex Seitz-Wald

Despite Fox News host Glenn Beck’s conspiracy theory about progressivism being a “cancer” that is secretly plotting to destroy the country, Americans have a largely positive view of the word “progressive.” Meanwhile, “capitalism” appears to not have fared so well following the Great Recession. A new Pew poll of nine political words and phrases found that a strong majority — 68 percent — of Americans have a positive reaction to the word “progressive,” while only 52 percent have the same response to “capitalism”:

Of course, capitalism and progressivism are not opposites, but perhaps Americans view one as the cause of the economic crisis, and the other as the solution. ThinkProgress has noted that the tea party movement hasn’t proven popular in recent polls either, with socialism and even the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) receiving more favorable ratings.

75% of Americans still blame Bush for the economy, but…

By Diana Sweet

A new Gallup poll conducted March 26-28 shows that 75% of Americans surveyed still place most of the blame for the current economy on former President George W. Bush.

But the blame Obama chorus is beginning to rise, as the poll shows. The poll shows a "significant uptick" since last July in the percentage of Americans blaming Obama at least a moderate amount (from 32% to 50%), but a decrease, however slight, for George W. Bush (from 80% to 75%).

Gallup also notes that "Americans in July 2009 clearly recognized that the nation's economic problems preceded Obama's term; at that time, close to half of Republicans (43%) -- in addition to most independents (63%) and nearly all Democrats (92%) -- believed Obama bore little or no responsibility for them." While those figures have begun to decline, clearly Bush still takes much more of the blame for the current state of the economy.

"The same survey, conducted July 17-19, showed 14% of respondents gave Obama a “great deal” of the blame and 18% tagged him with a “moderate amount," adds the MarketWatch blog.

Politics Daily makes note of the political divide within the survey, "Seventy-seven percent of Republicans blame Obama a great deal or moderate amount(I'm shocked), with 23 percent not blaming him much or at all. "Fifty-seven percent of Republicans put some measure of blame on Bush (although only 15 percent are in the "great deal" category) while 43 percent do not blame him much or at all anymore.

"Fifty percent of independents blame Obama a great deal or moderate amount, while 49 percent blame him not much or not at all," Political Daily's Bruce Drake adds. "Seventy-seven percent still blame Bush, while 24 percent blame him not much or at all."

The Christian Science Monitor suggests that perhaps that 'Miss me yet?' billboard in Minnesota went up a bit prematurely judging by the Gallup Poll. However, they also note that Obama's share of the blame continues to rise, "The bad news for Obama is that the numbers are worse for him now than they were last July, when only 14 percent blamed him a great deal and 18 percent blamed him moderately. The numbers for Bush have improved slightly."

The poll also suggests that these figures could begin to impact Obama's presidential approval numbers. "Theoretically, Obama accumulates more responsibility for the nation's economy every day he's in office,'' Saad writes. "That could bear down increasingly hard on his approval rating if unemployment continues to hold at or near 10 percent and consumer attitudes remain negative. However, the big upside is that should the economy rebound on his watch -- and recent Gallup tracking has some signs of a "nascent" recovery -- Obama is poised to receive much of the credit.''

M.C.L comment: I'm not shocked members of the White Power party lay the blame on President Obama but what are people expecting? George W. Bush had eight years to pile drive this country's economy into the ground and people want Obama to clean it up in 18 months? Lucky for President Obama things are coming around for that's why you see the negative talk from elected White Power officials to their allies in the right wing press, things are getting better and for them it's at the wrong time. And if things continue to get better and it's becoming crystal clear that the Republicans have no ideas, the GOP and their allies in the right wing media can forget about an replay of 1994.

Little difference between tea party and Grand Old Party

By David Jarman

Polling evidence indicates that tea partiers are just conservative Republicans by another name

With Saturday’s much-publicized rally in Searchlight, Nevada, there is lots of talk about the effect that the tea party movement could have on this November’s elections.

But several polls released this week suggest that the only thing new about the tea party movement might be its name – and that the tea partiers themselves are simply the loudest, most revved-up subset of Republicans.

Quinnipiac’s March 24 survey found that, contrary to the notion that they’re a newly mobilized force of previously apolitical independents, tea party supporters represent the right-most flank of the Republican core. Tea partiers, who made up 13 percent of Quinnipiac’s nationwide sample, approved of the Republican Party by a 60 to 20 percent margin; among independents, by contrast, the GOP’s approval was 28-42 percent.

74 percent of tea partiers identified as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, while only 16 percent said they were Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Only 15 percent voted for Barack Obama, while 77 percent went for John McCain (suggesting little of the allegedly rampant “buyer’s remorse”). And while Sarah Palin has an upside-down favorable rating (33-51 percent) among all voters, tea partiers view her favorably by a 72-14 percent spread.

The activation of this die-hard base is what’s helping the Republicans gain an edge in voter intensity going into the midterm election. But there are a few races where there’ll be viable third-party candidate with tea party ties on the ballot – and in these cases, that intensity could spell disaster for the GOP. Quinnipiac finds that the GOP leads the generic House ballot (which asks which party one plans to vote for in November’s congressional elections) 44-39 percent; but when a tea party option is included, the Democrats gain a 36-25 percent edge over the GOP, with the tea party option at 15 percent.

The same dynamic is evident in a March 25 Harris Poll, which looked at a hypothetical 2012 election. It found Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney 46-39 percent, but in a three-way race between Obama, Romney, and Sarah Palin as a tea party candidate, it turns into a 45-24-18 percent rout for Obama. The pattern is the same: the Democratic share stays almost the same, while the GOP vote is splintered by the presence of an even more conservative alternative.

In other words, the tea party movement could be as much a curse for the GOP as a blessing.

M.C.L comment: I bet you folks out there already knew these tea party folks were the vocal nutty base of the Republican party and this only confirms it. I have no problem Republicans or conservatives protesting President Obama, but what they're protesting were things they clapped and cheered for.

The things they're screaming about now were things their guy George W.Bush and their GOP majority did when they had power, so my question to the tea party nation is since you're screaming about debt, record spending and threats on personal freedom where were you from 2001-2008?

Americans Judge The Bush Decade: ‘Awful’ And ‘Not So Good’

By Amanda Terkel A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds that Americans are entering 2011 with a negative view of the events of the past decade, which was largely marked by President Bush’s tenure from 2001-2009:

According to the poll, a combined 58% said the decade was either “awful” or “not so good,” 29% said it was fair, and just 12% said it was either “good” or “great.” [...]

Asked what they thought had the greatest negative impact on America this past decade, 38% cited the 9/11 terrorist attacks, 23% picked the mortgage and housing crisis, 20% said the Iraq war, 11% chose the stock market crash, and 6% said Hurricane Katrina.

But 37% said it lost ground on the environment, 46% said it lost ground on health and well being, 50% said it lost ground on peace and national security, 54% said lost ground on the nation’s sense of unity, 55% said it lost ground in treating others with respect, 66% said it lost ground on moral values, and a whopping 74% said it lost ground on economic prosperity.

Census Bureau figures released in September largely support the public’s pessimistic take on the last decade:

On every major measurement, the Census Bureau report shows that the country lost ground during Bush’s two terms. While Bush was in office, the median household income declined, poverty increased, childhood poverty increased even more, and the number of Americans without health insurance spiked. By contrast, the country’s condition improved on each of those measures during Bill Clinton’s two terms, often substantially. [...]

Bush built his economic strategy around tax cuts, passing large reductions both in 2001 and 2003. … But the bleak economic results from Bush’s two terms, tarnish, to put it mildly, the idea that tax cuts represent an economic silver bullet.

The poll comes as loyal Bushies are attempting to rewrite the former president’s legacy and delude the public into believing that the country’s current problems are all the fault of President Obama. Former White House adviser Karl Rove, for example, has been all over the media, issuing statements like the Bush administration has “no” responsibility for current budget deficits. Bush officials have even tried to claim that they made Afghanistan a top priority and that Obama is the one who has been screwing up their work. Fox News host Sean Hannity has gone so far as to say that Bush deserved the Nobel Peace Prize, and Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) is claiming that the cure to the country’s problems is to just give political control back to Republicans (which was true for a large part of the last decade).

Historians have ranked Bush as one of the top 10 worst presidents in U.S. history and believe his legacy will most resemble that of former presidents Richard Nixon and Herbert Hoover. Time magazine recently did a feature calling the past 10 years the “decade from Hell.”

M.C.L. Comment: Saying the George W. Bush era was awful would be a understatement of the decade, turning things a record surplus into debt in a few years in office is a amazing the Republicans and the few people that still worship Bush should be proud of that. Getting us stuck in two wars is another truly awe aspiring event, leaking a CIA agent and nothing happen is another thing those on the right should be proud of.

But the amazing thing to me during the Bush era was how George W. Bush, the G.O.P and the right wing media took a epic security screw up on 9.11 and turned it into a political weapon against the Democrats. Think about it during the 2004 election the message that the Bush/Cheney were sending was this to prevent more terrorist attacks like 9.11 they needed to be re-elected, seriously 9.11 happen on their watch and they're running around the country telling people that attacks like 9.11 would happen daily if John Kerry and John Edwards got elected.Hopefully Americans learn they truly don't want a beer and but instead a smart capable guy.