REPORT: Number Of Tea Party Events Down More Than 50 Percent In 2011

By Scott Keyes/Think Progress

Last September, Tea Party Patriots co-founder Jenny Beth Martin answered critics who predicted that the movement would soon peter out: “The Tea Party movement is here to stay.” Seven months later, presidential candidate Herman Cain — a Tea Party favorite — echoed the same sentiment: “I have people asking me all the time. Do you think this Tea-Party ‘thing’ is going to go away? [...] No, it’s not going away. It’s gonna get stronger and stronger.”

A ThinkProgress investigation, however, shows a far different picture. Indeed, empirical evidence points to one conclusion: Tea Party activity has declined sharply thus far in 2011.

For this report, ThinkProgress examined the total number of events across the country listed on the Tea Party Patriots (TPP) and Americans for Prosperity (AFP) websites each month. We then compared the number of Tea Parties that occurred in 2010 with the number that took place in the first seven months of 2011.

The results were startling. For TPP, fewer than half the number of Tea Party events took place in the first seven months of 2011 compared to the same time period in 2010. Furthermore, while an average of 337 Tea Parties were held across the country each month of 2010, this year that number has dropped to just 166 events per month and continues to decline.

Source: Tea Party Patriots events page | Red line shows average trend

This study only looked at events organized by Americans for Prosperity or Tea Party Patriots and their affiliates — other Tea Party groups’ event numbers were not readily available. The two groups, however, serve as complimentary proxies for the overall movement. TPP is the largest and most organized of all Tea Party groups, boasting over 1,000 local chapters, while AFP represents the more top-down corporate-directed segment of the Tea Party. Together, the two groups are a good barometer of morale and enthusiasm among the Tea Party rank-and-file.

We found a similarly steep decline among Tea Party events held by Americans for Prosperity as well. The number of events held in the first seven months of 2011 dropped off by more than one-third compared to the same time period in 2010.

Source: Americans for Prosperity events page | Red line shows average trend

Critics of our finding that the number of Tea Party events has significantly decreased in 2011 may argue that it’s apples-and-oranges to compare 2010 and 2011 because the former was an election year. However, this objection is faulty for two reasons. First, if the Tea Party likens itself as a movement rather than an election turnout machine for Republicans, we should expect to see little dropoff from 2010 to 2011. That is clearly not the case.

Second, nearly every Tea Party leader has declared some variation of the theme: “Our work doesn’t end on Election Day, that’s when it begins.” When looking at the actual number of Tea Party events that have taken place since that day, however, it’s clear there has been a significant drop-off in quantity.

Six months ago, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) predicted that the Tea Party would soon disappear as the economy continues to improve. The jury is out on whether or not it will vanish completely anytime soon, but this ThinkProgress report empirically shows that the Tea Party train is in the midst of a substantial decline.

CAPAF intern Casey Peeks contributed research to this report.

Howard Dean: Tea party the ‘last gasp of the 55-year-old generation’

By Daniel Tencer

Slams Obama's staffers' 'contempt' for liberals

The tea party movement represents "the last gasp of a generation that has trouble with diversity," Howard Dean told an audience Wednesday.

The former governor of Vermont and head of the Democratic National Committee told a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor that he expects the tea party to be a powerful influence in the 2012 election as it was in the 2010 election, but he doesn't see it as the future of American politics.

"I think it's the last gasp of the 55-year-old generation, not the first gasp of a new generation," he said. "It's a group of older folks who've seen their lives change dramatically. The country's not the same ... All of a sudden its here for them and they don't know what to do ... Every morning when they see the president they're reminded that things are totally different than when they were born."

Dean, who became a folk hero to progressives after his iconoclastic 2004 presidential run, suggested that the Republicans may find it more difficult to attract voters in the future, as the influence of the over-55 crowd wanes. But he said the GOP could still attract new voters, provided they change their message.

“They can get this younger generation," he said. "But they can’t get it on the backs of gays and immigrants, because many of their friends are gays and immigrants."

Dean also welcomed the staffing changes at the White House and criticized current White House staffers who he said had "contempt" for the president's progressive base.

Dean didn't name names, but the comment seemed targeted at Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, who announced this week he will be leaving the White House. In an interview with The Hill last summer, Gibbs criticized the "professional left" for their frustration with President Obama's policies, provoking anger among liberals.

Aside from Gibbs, economic advisers Paul Volcker and Larry Summers are also leaving.

"As they say, don't let the door hit you in the you-know-what on the way out," Dean said.

The following video was uploaded to the Web by the Christian Science Monitor.